Accident at Indonesia's Grasberg Underground Mine, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,923.5/mt overnight, touched a low of $9,917/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout, nearing the end of the session it touched a high of $10,015.5/mt, and finally closed at $10,012/mt, up 0.96%, with trading volume reaching 17,000 lots and open interest reaching 287,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2510 opened at 79,950 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 79,870 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout, nearing the end of the session it touched a high of 80,280 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 80,190 yuan/mt, up 0.64%, with trading volume at 27,000 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) According to a Reuters report on September 9, Freeport-McMoRan announced the suspension of operations at the Grasberg underground mine in Indonesia. On the evening of September 8, a large amount of wet ore material flooded in the mining area, blocking passages and trapping seven contractor employees underground. The company confirmed that the trapped personnel's whereabouts are clear and their vital signs are stable, and rescue teams are clearing passages to ensure safe evacuation. To prioritize personnel safety, mining activities in the area have been completely suspended, and the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources will head to the site for inspection. As one of the world's major copper mines, this suspension may cause short-term disruptions to copper supply.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 10, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 79,670-79,820 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the morning session, SHFE copper briefly touched 79,750 yuan/mt before starting to decline, fluctuating rangebound between 79,670-79,700 yuan/mt, and after 11 a.m., it surged to 79,790 yuan/mt, closing at 79,760 yuan/mt. The intermonth spread narrowed to around BACK 10 yuan/mt, while the far-month spread rose slightly; import losses for front-month SHFE copper expanded to around 250 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound with limited new orders from downstream, and purchasing sentiment is expected to be low. Domestic supplies did not fall to a discount at the psychological price level for arbitrage traders, and holders of deliverable domestic supplies showed low willingness to sell at low prices. Trading is expected to be relatively stagnant tomorrow, with imported supplies still at small discount levels.

(2) Guangdong: On September 10, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 70 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 40 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70-50 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,715 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,615 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventories fell for the sixth consecutive day, but spot premiums only held flat from the previous day, mainly due to suppliers' strong willingness to sell.

(3) Imported copper: On September 10, warrant prices were $55-63/mt, QP September, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $57-65/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $27-33/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 10, the futures closing price was 79,760 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 60 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,400-73,600 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,629 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 860 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, due to slow production resumptions at enterprises in Jiangxi affected by policies, many orders have flowed to Hubei province. Local secondary copper rod enterprises in Hubei stated that they have not yet received notifications from relevant departments, so they maintain normal production. In fact, due to increased orders, factories sometimes need to operate an additional furnace.

(5) Inventories: On September 9, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 225 mt to 155,050 mt; on September 10, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 45 mt to 19,126 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US August PPI data were far below market expectations, indicating eased wholesale inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood of significant consumer price increases in the coming months, providing grounds for the US Fed to support an interest rate cut at next week's meeting. Trump also claimed "inflation is zero!" and urged an immediate significant interest rate cut, pushing the US dollar index lower and supporting copper prices. Fundamentally, supply and demand are in a tug-of-war: continuous replenishment of imported cargo and active selling by traders keep spot supply ample, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. Price-wise, the market reaction is relatively cautious; the weaker-than-expected PPI reinforces expectations for an interest rate cut, with focus shifting to today's CPI data. Copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]